October 1983 One of the redeeming features of real estate investment for years was its consistency. Winds of change could blow gales in the securities, commodities, gem and collectable markets while single family houses continued to plod like the proverbial tortoise steadily toward virtually assured profits. Events of the past 12 months have altered my concept considerably. Consider what's transpired.
Continue reading “It’s Not How You Start, It’s How You Finish . . .”
September 1983 Nature has a way of selecting successful life forms. It changes the rules for survival. Those that can't adapt to the new environment perish! That's what happened to the dinosaurs. That's what will happen to SFH investors too if they don't change with the times. And times are changing faster than we realize. Perhaps, by looking at some of these emerging trends, we'll be able to better position ourselves to take advantage of the future. What are some of these changes?
August 1983 One of the great mysteries of the past year has been the fantastic surge in the price of stocks. It's easy enough to rationalize why nervous foreigners might put their assets into American companies or why fund managers choose the equity markets in lieu of relatively mild performance in Money Market Funds or T-Bills. And the 1982 IRA accounts that flooded into the market certainly helped boost it along. But what about business fundamentals? Has anyone noticed increases in business bankruptcies this year? Haven't after tax profits remained flat even with massive concessions by labor? Aren't our exports down and likely to remain down? Is the chronic unemployment above 10% just a rumor? Didn't interest rates start up recently, along with the rate of inflation?
Continue reading “It Takes More Than Cheerleaders To Win The Game . . .”
July 1983 What do Robin Hood, Black Beard and Government have in common? Each of them survived by stealing from someone else and dividing up the spoils among their followers. The principal difference among them is less a matter of morality than of scale. Mere brigands and pirates are pikers compared to government when it comes to transferring wealth from your purse to theirs. And in this recession year with a shrinking revenue base from taxes, government at all levels is in desperate straits. Having bought power at the polls with gifts of tax payer's earnings, politicians are faced with being voted out of office unless they can continue to provide the cornucopia of government goodies to constituencies of voters that are, in turn, divided in their quest for more benefits.
June 1983 Remember the house of mirrors? Some of them made you look fat, or thin. Or short. Or tall. They changed your shape, distorted your features. Clever design of illusions changed the way you perceived reality. Reality itself remained unchanged. Today we're being bombarded with conflicting economic signals which alter our perception of reality. The trick is to devine the true yellow brick road to riches in the midst of all the false images - and to avoid the pot holes once we've found it.
May 1983 Three writers over the past 4 decades tried to deal with that question. Most recently, John Naisbitt wrote MEGATRENDS which dealt with demographics and fundamental changes in economic and political structures. Alvin Toffler wrote FUTURE SHOCK and THE THIRD WAVE which pointed out that things change much more rapidly than we expect or in ways that we didn't anticipate. In his classic book "1984", George Orwell forecast a socio/political structure which we are more and more beginning to resemble which more or less reduced free people to the status of serfs who generated power for bureaucrats. Under any of their scenarios, survivors must learn to adapt in order to prosper.
Continue reading “Where’s The Country Heading? Up? Down? Or Sideways?”
April 1983 There's a built in bias in the investment newsletter field toward sensational headlines. Oh, it's great for circulation and renewals. Each month another chapter of the "Perils of Pauline" unfolds. The intrepid entrepreneur again and again seems to be trapped by changes in the tax laws, interest rates, due-on-sale clauses, rent controls, the EPA. Only by buying the succeeding issue can one keep abreast of solutions to old challenges and precautions to avoid new ones. Beware! The newsletter industry is littered with the remains of toothsayers who mistook luck in forecasting for almost mystical ability to see into the future. Unfortunately, they took a lot of faithful readers along with them on the road to oblivion.
Continue reading “Invest In The Basics – Speculate On The News!”
March 1983 Warren G. Harding - not the President, but rather one of America's foremost real estate Exchangers and founder of The Academy of Real Estate - for years told students in his seminars about experiments in which mice were taught to find their ways through intricate mazes and traps in search of their eventual reward of cheese at the end. Once they'd solved the riddle, the cheese would be moved to another location and the search would start all over. Ultimately the levels of frustration would drive the mice insane or they'd stop trying and refuse to make the effort necessary for their own survival.
February 1983 Even the most astute investor can fail! He can select the best investment in which to place his money. He can time his moves to the moment. He can test the political winds carefully. He may gauge the primary economic trend perfectly. And he can STILL FAIL! Why? Because, when markets become irrational, there's no logic that guarantees success. I don't care whether we're discussing financial, commodity, real estate or securities markets; there's a time for caution. This is just such a time.
January 1983 Two years ago the new decade was heralded with some of the most optimistic forecasts in memory. Demographically, our population was on the threshold of exploding prosperity. A new President had been elected by an overwhelming majority and handed a blank check with which to reverse inflation, reduce government interference and costs, restore fiscal sanity, and usher in the decade of the golden eighties. In this first issue of the year, it might he wise to do a little summing up. Government has grown both larger and more expensive. The statesmanship needed to effect real change has never surfaced. Instead we've gotten the same old line up of excuses. Two years ago, in this letter; we predicted a higher tax load, threat of war, and an administration hamstrung by inter-party squabbling. It's even worse than that! America has lost control over it's own future.Our ship of state seems to have lost its wind, sails, rudder, and helmsman. More than ever, citizens are going to have to plan on shifting for themselves. As entrepreneurs and investors in SFH you area head of the pack.
Continue reading “Is The Sky Really Beginning To Fall After All?”
