Who really knows what will happen? Certainly we’ll have ups and downs. How much?
However, there are a few things that are clear. We have a LOT of failures, foreclosures, tenants put on the street, failed businesses, people out of work. And the effect has yet to hit. So, how will this affect our real estate market?
Also, the fed has spent a TON of money and our national debt is at record levels. Unfortunately, mostly wasted expenditures.
But interest rates are at an all time low. In many areas housing sales are booming at high prices, often with bidding wars. Labor (of the people still employed) is higher that hell. Look at construction labor, rates to fix your car, etc. Of the restaurants and bars that have reopened, their food/drinks are higher. Building materials are high.
Rents in a lot of neighborhoods are way up.
So what do we make of this? Looks like the recipe for high inflation and a recession. But what will be the sequence of events?
Of my RE friends, most are taking a conservative cash position. Certainly not buying at these high prices, nor getting into bad debt. Nothing wrong with picking up low interest, long term debt however.
Gut feeling: Housing will soften, prices in some areas will drop. This will happen before we see the inflation. However, RE is a really localized thing, so your area may be different in mine. However, a lot of folks think there will be some good opportunities in the next 12 to 24 months.
For now, I got into some oil royalties (not stocks). Not for the faint of heart but it’s fun. Hoping to cash in on that prior to buying a few more house later on.