July 1984 The problem with trying to manipulate the economy in order to fool the public one more time is that you have to maintain control over it. It seems clear that the Reagan administration hasn't been able to do this. Somehow, I get the feeling that I've gone through a summer like this once before - at about this period in the Carter years. He too was trying to get the voters to give him another four years to keep his promises. And you might remember that he failed. There's a fair chance that Reagan will fail too!

Continue reading “The Roller Coaster Is About To Come Off The Tracks!”

June 1984 The real problem with reading a daily paper or in watching the evening news is that you get too much information - and much of it is contradictory. I have a tendency to want to make adjustments in my investment portfolio with each piece of news. If I were to actually do this, one day I'd be up to my ears in Gold Shares, then I'd go into currency hedges - maybe Yen. Tax sheltered investments might be attractive in April while income property would come in handy when bills came due. Let's not forget T-Bills or numismatic coins. At one time or another all these might seem appropriate.

Continue reading “Is Your Crystal Ball As Cloudy As Mine?”

May 1984 What is money anyhow? Oh sure, it's that green stuff we give for groceries. But isn't it more than that? Aren't Credit Cards money too? Checks? Notes? Where does our definition stop? Couldn't we agree that money is anything that we can use to transfer stored value from one party to another? For example, suppose you were a painter willing to exchange a paint job on a house for a payment on a car. Without money, you'd have to find a car dealer who needed a paint job. On the other hand, by accepting money for your work that the car dealer would accept, you can use your labor to accomplish what you want to do.

Continue reading “Get Ready For Manufactured Money – It’s On Its Way. . .”

April 1984 The winning candidates have highlighted more than ever the total inability of Americans to face the economic facts of life - and the politicians know it! This decade will mark a turning point in our value system in which we sacrifice both our parents and our children in order to avoid paying the piper. Ronald Reagan has generated the same kind of "guns and butter" irresponsibility as Lyndon Johnson did almost 20 years ago. We can expect the same results - spirit sapping, spiraling inflation coupled with higher and higher taxes regardless who wins the elections. Look at some of these statistics:

Continue reading “Americans Want To Fly Now, But Who’s Going To Pay Later?”

March 1984 Pity the poor investor in Gold, Silver, Stocks, Bonds. For the past 5 years or so he's really been whip-sawed by the markets. He's seen fortunes placed within his reach only to have them snatched away before he had a chance to convert them to cash. On the other hand, the lowly single family house investor has continued to plod along toward financial independence. His investments continue to ignore predictions of real estate crashes and his rents continue to rise with record speed. What's more, his plight is going to steadily improve.

Continue reading “Get Ready! Get Set! Go! – 1984 Is The Year Of The House.”

February 1984 Recently the U.S. League of Savings Institutions' Home Ownership Task Force warned of an impending crisis. "There isn't going to be enough long term mortgage money available from lenders at affordable rates to allow aspiring home owners to get a mortgage." One of the reasons is that Americans are only saving 3% of their income - a new low, down from the 5% reported during the Carter administration. Contributing to this is the record level of taxes and increasing deficits which promise to drive interest and inflation rates skyward. Inflation has driven land and construction costs upward at the same time as interest rates so that buyers can't earn enough to enter the housing market. And owners of older homes are not moving up into higher cost housing.

Continue reading “Single Family Houses – A Vanishing American Dream?”

January 1984 In 1949, an Englishman named Eric Blair wrote a book under the name of George Orwell. It was called 1984. It chronicled his version of the future 35 years hence. He envisioned a world divided into three kingdoms perpetually at war. All shortages in the economy were blamed on the war effort as were usurpation of individual freedom, private property rights and invasions of privacy. "Big Brother" was everywhere, watching everyone all the time. The family unit was destroyed as children reported their parents for the slightest "thought crimes" against the government. People lived in assigned quarters under government surveillance every waking moment. Orwell painted a bleak picture indeed.

Continue reading “Here Comes 1984. . .was Orwell Right?”

December 1983 Depending upon who you are, where you are, how prepared you are; the next 12 months will offer tremendous opportunity for success or failure. Consider these facts: 1. IRS policy is to tighten the screws on abusive tax shelters. 2. Under proposed legislation, both negative cash flow investments and high interest rate financing will be severely penalized. 3. Changes in the credit markets and Government deficits are likely to deprive housing of long term mortgage financing except under indexed or higher payment terms. 4. Every day there are fewer assumable loans available at low interest rates.

Continue reading “It’s The Best Of Times, It’s The Worst Of Times . .”

November 1983 I've been on the road for the past month trying to find answers to that question. The conclusions I've drawn are varied indeed. It all depends upon where one is at the moment. It's a basic premise of map reading that a person first orient himself to a location before setting off toward an objective. And depending upon who you are, the direction you need to set off on toward success will vary.

Continue reading “Where Do We Go From Here?”

October 1983 One of the redeeming features of real estate investment for years was its consistency. Winds of change could blow gales in the securities, commodities, gem and collectable markets while single family houses continued to plod like the proverbial tortoise steadily toward virtually assured profits. Events of the past 12 months have altered my concept considerably. Consider what's transpired.

Continue reading “It’s Not How You Start, It’s How You Finish . . .”